Tactical Tips for Forecasting Deals in Uncertain Times

The days of boundless optimism and endless runway are over. In today’s environment, companies have tighter budgets, greater financial accountability, and increased internal scrutiny. This new reality requires sales leaders to take a sober, unbiased approach to forecasting.

However, many organizations still rely on outdated assumptions and tools when reviewing pipeline deals. Rep opinions and sparse CRM notes paint an incomplete picture. To forecast accurately, you need objective data and structured reviews that expose risks.

This blog explores new approaches to deal reviews that reflect the realities of today’s selling environment. Follow these steps to forecast with clear eyes, avoid surprises, and plan resources appropriately.

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1. Assume All Deals Are “Guilty Until Proven Innocent”

A few years ago, every deal in the pipeline was touted enthusiastically as a sure-fire win. Leaders needed to poke holes and interrogate assumptions. Today, the script has flipped.

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Why should you assume all deals are stalled until evidence proves otherwise?

In current conditions, optimism needs to be earned through tangible buyer actions, not taken for granted. Reasons for a cautious stance include:

• Longer sales cycles: More stakeholders and diligence elongate the process.
• Tighter budgets: Every purchase faces intense internal scrutiny.
• Increased competition: Buyers see more options during extended cycles.

By assuming deals are stalled, you force diligence and proactivity vs. passive optimism. This pressure-tests your pipeline and uncovers risks.

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2. Get CFO and Economic Buyer Buy-In Through Rigorous Business Cases

Gone are the days of relying on supporters and coaches within the client organization. Now economic buyers like CFOs scrutinize every deal.

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What level of financial diligence is needed in this climate?

• Quantified ROI: Model the expected financial impact and tie to strategic goals.
• Executive-level presentation: Involve economic buyers directly in building the case.
• Off-cycle budget: Deals need to be tied to growth priorities to unlock unplanned budgets.

This level of diligence is required to justify investments in tight times. Anything less leads to stalled deals when upper management applies financial pressure.

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3. Watch for Changes in Buyer Behavior as Red Flags

Buyer actions provide the clearest signals about deal health. When behaviors shift, it usually indicates trouble.

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What changes in buyer actions should raise concerns?

• Delayed responses: Slower email reply times or meeting scheduling.
• Less engagement: Drop offs in site visits, content access, product usage.
• Missed milestones: Action items or deadlines repeatedly pushed.
• Access limitations: Reduced availability of contacts, more protocol.

Proactively investigate why behaviors changed with direct outreach. Don’t just accept the signals something stalled.

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4. Use Mutual Action Plans for Accountability and Visibility

Sporadic pipeline reviews leave too many gaps between updates. Mutual action plans close these gaps.

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How do mutual action plans support forecast accuracy?

• Proactively plan milestones: Target dates for critical steps, aligned to methodology.
• Ensure follow-through: Clear ownership between meetings and deadlines.
• Track milestone completion: Updates on progress against plan.
• Facilitate collaboration: Sales collateral and execution tools in one place.

With improved accountability through structured plans, you gain early visibility into changes in deal trajectory. This supports proactive interventions versus surprises.

This is a sample of our Mutual Action Plan Template in Recapped.

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5. Develop Structured Playbooks for Deal Reviews

Inconsistent approaches to deal reviews undermine their impact. Develop playbooks to ensure diligence.

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What elements should you standardize in a deal review playbook?

• Cadence for reviews by deal stage
• Prep requirements for reps and managers pre-review
• Template for capturing risks, actions, issues, and coaching
• Guidelines for involving SMEs or other specialists
• Format for updating forecasts based on review insights

Playbooks create optimally effective and efficient review rhythms.

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5. Apply Scrutiny to Verbal Commitments

Buyers will verbally promise many things that ultimately don’t materialize. Validate words with actions.

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How can you pressure-test the credibility of buyer verbal commitments?

• Note if promised involvement actually occurs
• Require proof of budget availability vs. just claims
• Verify stated priorities translate into milestone progression
• Review system logs for actual product engagement
• Gather feedback from additional stakeholder perspectives

Watch what buyers do, not just what they say. Their actions reveal the truth.

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6. Review Early Stage Deals to Refine Prospecting

Analyzing your early stage deals uncovers patterns in what synergies underpin initial engagement. Refine targeting accordingly.

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What can early deal characteristics reveal about successful prospect profiles?

• Common pain points in companies that engage
• Titles and roles that sponsor initial meetings
• Content or campaigns that pique interest
• Events or triggers that drive outreach acceptance

Use these insights to optimize future prospecting targeting, messaging, and outreach channels.

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7. Leverage Deal Data to Forecast More Precisely

Reviews focused purely on rep intuition leave too much margin for error. Crunching deal data improves accuracy.

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What metrics can augment rep opinions to sharpen forecasts?

• Average sales cycle by segment or product line
• Historical win rates by deal stage or size
• Typical expansion and upsell ratios
• Average deal value multipliers from discovery to close

Factoring objective data into forecasts balances gut feel and provides guardrails.

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8. Regularly Backtest Forecast Accuracy

You can’t improve forecast accuracy without discipline reviewing predictions vs. actuals. Routinely backtest and adjust.

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How can you drive improvements through forecast reviews?

• Measure accuracy over time by rep, segment, and stage
• Unpack reasons for variations between predictions and outcomes
• Identity leading indicators that consistently predict results
• Adjust models and processes based on findings
• Provide rep coaching around forecast reliability

Creating a feedback loop focused on forecasting tightens predictions over time.

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Want More Accurate Forecasting?

If you want to evolve your deal reviews into unbiased, data-driven conversations, schedule a demo of Recapped.

Recapped provides the actionable insights you need to eliminate pipeline surprises and forecast with confidence. Let us help you see the full picture.

The days of boundless optimism and endless runway are over. In today’s environment, companies have tighter budgets, greater financial accountability, and increased internal scrutiny. This new reality requires sales leaders to take a sober, unbiased approach to forecasting.

However, many organizations still rely on outdated assumptions and tools when reviewing pipeline deals. Rep opinions and sparse CRM notes paint an incomplete picture. To forecast accurately, you need objective data and structured reviews that expose risks.

This post explores new approaches to deal reviews that reflect the realities of today’s selling environment. Follow these steps to forecast with clear eyes, avoid surprises, and plan resources appropriately.